> "far more value has been created from open source than captured. Many open source projects didn’t benefit anyone; they benefited everyone."
Great point. If you follow this line of thinking, it suggests that the way to have invested around the open source theme over the past few decades wasn't to pick a basket of open source companies, but rather just to buy VOO or QQQ. The value that didn't stay in the open source companies leaked into every other enterprise in the developed world.
Maybe we will see something similar in LLMs -- if the value from AI mostly leaks out as broad based surplus, then maybe we should sit out most venture deals in AI apps and instead just buy the S&P 500.
Spot on analysis. The transition from pure foundational capability to actual product development is where the real "moats" are being built right now. Open-source/open-weight models completely change the build-vs-buy math for startups looking to iterate fast without getting locked into a single ecosystem.
I actually just did a deep dive into the broader business strategy and game theory behind this—specifically looking at how Meta’s "defensive" $30B open-source spending is reshaping product lifecycles compared to OpenAI’s closed model premium. If anyone here is trying to decide which ecosystem to stack their product on, I broke down the economics of the mid-market battleground here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5B8posw25Y0
> "far more value has been created from open source than captured. Many open source projects didn’t benefit anyone; they benefited everyone."
Great point. If you follow this line of thinking, it suggests that the way to have invested around the open source theme over the past few decades wasn't to pick a basket of open source companies, but rather just to buy VOO or QQQ. The value that didn't stay in the open source companies leaked into every other enterprise in the developed world.
Maybe we will see something similar in LLMs -- if the value from AI mostly leaks out as broad based surplus, then maybe we should sit out most venture deals in AI apps and instead just buy the S&P 500.
Very interesting point, and I think that’d be a wise strategy for 99+% of people.
Spot on analysis. The transition from pure foundational capability to actual product development is where the real "moats" are being built right now. Open-source/open-weight models completely change the build-vs-buy math for startups looking to iterate fast without getting locked into a single ecosystem.
I actually just did a deep dive into the broader business strategy and game theory behind this—specifically looking at how Meta’s "defensive" $30B open-source spending is reshaping product lifecycles compared to OpenAI’s closed model premium. If anyone here is trying to decide which ecosystem to stack their product on, I broke down the economics of the mid-market battleground here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5B8posw25Y0