Thank you. Really appreciate your insights and freely sharing. I guess we both are waiting for consumer AI to provide us with personal assistants (virtual back office) to tie up these occasional loose ends! Forge and PitchBook already posting Space X valuation at just shy of $450B as of today. How much to own a part of the future for the rest of the galaxy? Maybe Michael Mauboussin’s Real Options Pricing model can help out with that!
Thanks for the thoughtful comments! Mauboussin’s framing on venture capital investments is the root of my thoughts on SpaceX’s “call option on the Mars Economy.” I think you’re right, it’s the closest method we’ve got to valuing that “uncertain growth opportunity.”
Next writeup on the nascent space economy/ecosystem? Seems under covered and there are alot of interesting companies (in addition to SpaceX) such as Blue Origin, RDW, RKLB, LUNR etc.
Great article. The space industry is limitless I feel, with unlimited resources. I watched a series called ‘The Expanse’ which shows humans living in a multi-planetary society and if that happens in real, SpaceX and its peers will be BIG beneficiaries. Obviously we’re talking decades here, but it pays to play the long term game.
My only worry is, what happens to SpaceX without Musk at the helm?
Dear Eric. Good insight about the history and economics of SpaceX. Can I translate part of this article into Spanish with links to you and a description of your newsletter? I will also restack it.
Hi Eric,
Thank you for an informative article and good start for some due diligence. Of note, I noticed that the link you have to compare the development cost for the Falcon 9 v cost plus scenario only obliquely mentioned it. This link has a slide that explicitly noted your numbers: https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/586023main_8-3-11_NAFCOM.pdf#:~:text=Results:%20%E2%80%9CThe%20activity%20estimated%20Falcon%209%20would,adjusted%20to%20a%20more%20commercial%20development%20approach.
Great catch.
Thank you. Really appreciate your insights and freely sharing. I guess we both are waiting for consumer AI to provide us with personal assistants (virtual back office) to tie up these occasional loose ends! Forge and PitchBook already posting Space X valuation at just shy of $450B as of today. How much to own a part of the future for the rest of the galaxy? Maybe Michael Mauboussin’s Real Options Pricing model can help out with that!
Thanks for the thoughtful comments! Mauboussin’s framing on venture capital investments is the root of my thoughts on SpaceX’s “call option on the Mars Economy.” I think you’re right, it’s the closest method we’ve got to valuing that “uncertain growth opportunity.”
Next writeup on the nascent space economy/ecosystem? Seems under covered and there are alot of interesting companies (in addition to SpaceX) such as Blue Origin, RDW, RKLB, LUNR etc.
Great idea. Next several articles are lined up, but I think the space ecosystem is well worth the research.
Great article. The space industry is limitless I feel, with unlimited resources. I watched a series called ‘The Expanse’ which shows humans living in a multi-planetary society and if that happens in real, SpaceX and its peers will be BIG beneficiaries. Obviously we’re talking decades here, but it pays to play the long term game.
My only worry is, what happens to SpaceX without Musk at the helm?
It's a fair concern, and there's no good answer.
Dear Eric. Good insight about the history and economics of SpaceX. Can I translate part of this article into Spanish with links to you and a description of your newsletter? I will also restack it.
Dear Eric, this is the translation, please feel free to change anything:
https://dineros.substack.com/p/spacex-la-historia-de-la-disrupcion